Monthly Archives: April 2022

Stocks Start Week Flat

MONDAY – Stocks were flat Monday morning as the 10-year Treasury yield hit a new three-year high and a week of major first-quarter earnings reports kicked off.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached on Monday it highest level since late 2018, trading at 2.884% at one point. The yield was at 1.71% to begin March, but has shot higher as the Federal Reserve pivoted to a more aggressive tightening stance. That change has weighed on stocks and triggered concerns about an impending recession.

Several Dow blue-chip names report earnings this week, including IBM, Procter and Gamble, Travelers, Dow Inc, Johnson and Johnson, American Express and Verizon.

Technology bellwethers are also set to report quarterly earnings, with Netflix due on Tuesday and Tesla out on Wednesday. Snap reports Thursday. United Airlines, American Airlines and Alaska Air are also on the calendar, as are railroads CSX and Union Pacific.

Investors will be paying close attention to forward guidance, especially for comments on how companies are handling surging costs. March’s consumer price index reading released last week showed an 8.5% increase from a year ago, the fastest annual gain since December 1981.

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Stocks Flat To Start Earnings Season

WEDNESDAY – Stocks were flat on Wednesday as traders weighed more surging inflation numbers and lackluster results from JPMorgan Chase to kick off the first quarter earnings reporting season.

First quarter earnings reporting season kicked off Wednesday and analysts have tempered their expectations amid rising commodity costs, the war in Ukraine and the lingering pandemic. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to increase just 4.5% in the period, the lowest growth since the fourth quarter of the pandemic-plagued 2020, according to FactSet.

On Wednesday a report showed producer prices, wholesale costs that could eventually lead to higher retail prices, jumped a record 11.2% in March on an annual basis. The monthly gain of 1.4% topped the 1.1% estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 2.74% following the producer prices report. The yield touched a three-year high of 2.82% this week before pulling back.

The producer prices report followed the consumer prices gauge released on Tuesday which showed an 8.5% surge in March, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. The report fueled further concerns of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, even as core CPI excluding food and energy costs rose 0.3%, slightly below expectations. Some on Wall Street saw this as a sign that inflation may be nearing a peak.

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Stocks Flat To Close Losing Week

FRIDAY – Stocks were flat on Friday and the market headed for a losing week as investors braced for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

Despite a small rebound Thursday and Friday’s early gains, the major averages were headed for weekly declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 1% and 2.6%, respectively, for the week through Thursday’s close. The Dow was down 0.7% week to date. Those losses would mark the first weekly losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in four weeks. Meanwhile, the Dow is headed for back-to-back weekly declines.

The losses have been driven by a change of tone by the Federal Reserve, signaling it will be even more aggressive to fight inflation. On Wednesday, the central bank disclosed its March meeting minutes, revealing that policymakers plan to reduce their bond holdings by a consensus amount of about $95 billion a month. The minutes also indicated potential interest rate hikes of 50 basis points in future meetings. A basis point equals 0.01%.

Investors are also looking ahead to earnings season kicking off next week with reports from five big banks.

The Dow bounced back on Thursday after two straight days of losses, ending the day up 0.25% after dropping as much as 300 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closed higher for the day.

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Stocks Rise Slightly After Fed Selloff

THURSDAY – Stocks rose slightly Thursday as the market tried to recover from back-to-back losing sessions, while traders digested the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy.

The Fed on Wednesday released the minutes from its March meeting, which showed that officials planed to reduce their trillions in bond holdings with a consensus amount around $95 billion. Meanwhile, policymakers indicated that one or more 50 basis-point interest rate hikes could be warranted to battle surging inflation.

Officials “generally agreed” that a maximum of $60 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities would be allowed to roll off, phased in over three months and likely starting in May.

The news sent the blue-chip Dow down more than 100 points Wednesday, while the S&P 500 slid 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped another 2.2%, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.6%. Those losses came after comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard pushed stock prices lower on Tuesday.

Investors await the weekly jobless claims data Thursday morning, which is expected to show a total of 200,000 claims filed.

Crude prices ticked higher after falling in the previous session. U.S. oil gained 0.7% to $96.94 per barrel, while international Brent advanced 0.9% to $101.95.

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Stock Start Week Flat – Twitter Rockets

MONDAY – U.S. stocks were mostly flat Monday, as traders monitor the bond market’s warning signals about the economy.

Twitter ($TWTR) shares surged more than 25% after SEC filings revealed Elon Musk purchased a more than 9% passive stake in the social media company. It comes less than a week after Musk polled his followers, questioning whether the social media giant follows free speech principles. Based on Twitter’s Friday closing price, the stake is worth $2.89 billion.

An often-cited recession signal was triggered Thursday evening when the the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019. The 5-year note yield is also trading above its 30-year counterpart.

Investors are also monitoring the latest developments in Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Sunday that Western nations will impost additional sanctions on Russia in the coming days.

Seasonally, April is generally one of the best months for stocks, edging higher in the last 20 years by 2.41% on average, MKM Partners’ JC O’Hara wrote in a note. Within the 16 of the last 17 Aprils, the S&P has also inched higher.

Friday’s positive session came despite March’s employment report, which fell short of economists’ estimates. The U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs during the month, while estimates from Dow Jones called for 490,000.

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