Stocks Rising Again On Trade Optimism

TUESDAY – Stocks were set to open higher on Tuesday, following a record close in the previous session, as investors grew more bullish on a potential U.S.-China trade deal as both sides consider more rollbacks on tariffs.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 70 points and indicated a positive open of more than 58 points, while futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also higher. Major averages are on track for a third straight positive session.

China is pushing President Donald Trump to remove more tariffs on about $125 billion worth of Chinese goods imposed in September as part of the “phase one” trade deal, Reuters reported Monday evening. A U.S. official told Reuters the fate of the Dec. 15 tariffs is being considered as part of negotiations.

Strong earnings, more promising economic data and optimism over a resolution on trade with China drove the Dow to all-time highs on Monday, following the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s new records last week.

The Dow’s year-to-date gain now stands at around 18%, while the S&P 500 is up more than 22% and the Nasdaq more than 27% so far this year.

Traders will also have eyes on a raft of economic data Tuesday morning. September balance of trade, import and export figures are due for release at 9:30 a.m. ET before November Redbook data at 9:55 a.m. ET.

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Stocks Slide, But On Track For Positive Week

FRIDAY – Stocks traded lower on Friday amid weak overseas data, but remained on track to post solid weekly gains after the release of better-than-expected earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 97 points lower, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 pulled back 0.3% while the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.5%.

More than 70 S&P 500 companies have reported calendar third-quarter earnings this week. Of those companies, 81% have posted better-than-expected results, FactSet data shows.

Weak data from China weighed down the market on Friday.

Still, concerns over the state of the global economy lingered. Overnight, China posted its weakest growth in nearly three decades, as the U.S.-China trade war hit demand at home and abroad. The world’s second-largest economy grew 6% in the third quarter, less than expected, and its weakest pace of expansion in over 27 years.

Sentiment around U.S.-China trade talks improved slightly this week, however. Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday there is “a lot of momentum” to get a deal done.

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Stocks To Rise After Draft Brexit Deal Announced

THURSDAY – U.S. stock index futures rose Thursday after a draft Brexit deal was struck between the European Union and the U.K.

Around 7:40 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 82 points, indicating a gain of about 70 points at the open. Prior to the Brexit reports, futures had been trading flat to lower. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were also higher.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “we have a great new Brexit deal” via Twitter. He called on British lawmakers to back the deal when it’s put before Parliament on Saturday. Meanwhile, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker tweeted that the deal was a “fair and balanced” one.

Nonetheless, markets rallied on the Brexit reports, as the deal removed some investor uncertainty amid heightened concerns about the health of the global economy. On Wednesday, unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales data fueled fears about a possible recession.

Global economic data points to slower growth, while the U.S. manufacturing sector is already contracting. Among the greatest of the worries plaguing markets is the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

The latest weekly jobless claims figures, housing starts and building permits for September, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index for October will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Industrial production data for September will follow slightly later in the session.

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Stocks Rise Slightly After Jobs Data

FRIDAY – U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday, erasing an earlier decline after the release of the latest U.S. jobs report.

The U.S. economy added 136,000 jobs in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected an increase of 145,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, a 50-year low, but wages grew at a slower-than-expected pace last month.

Treasury yields briefly jumped before giving back those gains. The 10-year yield last traded at 1.53% after hitting 1.55%.

Wall Street will be watching speeches by Fed officials later in the day, including Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren.

Stocks came into Friday’s session on pace to record large losses for the week. The Dow was down 2.3% through Thursday’s close while the S&P 500 had lost 1.7%. The Nasdaq was down 0.9% week to date.

Those weekly losses came after a dismal U.S. manufacturing data report sparked fears of a potential recession in the U.S. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, the Dow lost more than 800 points.

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Stocks Start 4th Qtr Higher

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as Wall Street kicked off the final quarter of 2019.

Wall Street ended higher on Monday on the back of renewed optimism in U.S.-China trade talks. A spokeswoman for the U.S. Treasury said the White House “is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time.” This relieved some earlier fears raised by reports last week that the U.S. has been looking at restricting U.S. investments in China.

Trade delegations from China and the U.S. are set to resume trade talks next week.

Furthermore, traders are looking to hear from the World Trade Organization. The institution is set to decide on an aircraft subsidies dispute that could allow the U.S. to impose tariffs on Europe.

On the data front, manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET; construction spending figures will be out at 10 a.m. ET, as well as the Dallas Federal Reserve service-sector numbers.

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Stocks Higher As Wall Street Watched Trade Negotiations

U.S. stock index futures were higher on Monday, the last day of September, as investors watched trade developments between the U.S. and China.

Around 7:15 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicated a gain of 54.75 points at the open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also traded higher.

Wall Street ended lower last week on reports that the White House is considering limiting U.S. investment into China, including a possible de-listing of Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges, in a further escalation of the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. However, spokespeople had denied that the U.S. was considering such a move.

U.S. and China trade delegations are due to meet on Oct. 10 as both sides try to move closer to a deal. Both countries have slapped tariffs on billion of dollars worth of their goods, dampening expectations for economic and corporate profit growth.

The major indexes were headed for a mixed monthly performance. The Nasdaq Composite was down slightly for September entering Monday’s session while the S&P 500 and Dow were up more than 1%.

On the data front, Chicago PMI figures for September are due at 8:45 a.m. ET and Dallas Fed manufacturing index data will be published at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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Stocks Inch Higher To End Week

                                                                                                                                      FRIDAY – U.S. stock index futures indicated a higher open on Friday with Washington and Beijing set to resume key trade talks mid-October.

Any positive moves on Friday, however, would offset modest weekly losses for the major stock indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were all on track to finish the week lower before the bell Friday morning after snapping a three-week winning streak last week.

The optimism among traders Friday morning came with trade talks between the U.S. and China set to resume Oct. 10-11 in Washington, D.C., three people familiar with the discussions said. News of a scheduled meeting adds to the growing belief on Wall Street that the trade war between the two economic superpowers has eased in recent weeks.

U.S. consumer spending slowed more than expected in August, according to a government report released Friday. Personal consumption expenditures, also known as household spending, edged up an adjusted 0.1% in August from July, when spending rose 0.5%.

The print represents consumer spending’s softest read since February and could suggest to policymakers that a critical driver of U.S. GDP growth could be set for deceleration. Consumer spending accounts for more than 66% of total economic output in the United States.

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Stock Futures Pare Losses

Stocks were set to edge lower on Wednesday, even after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she will launch a formal impeachment inquiry on President Donald Trump.

As of 7:09 a.m. ET Wednesday, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures implied a loss of more than 10 points at the open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also indicated slight opening losses.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted their biggest one-day declines in a month in anticipation of the impeachment inquiry. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped 142 points, or 0.5%.

Stocks have surged since Trump was elected as the administration has implemented policies such as tax cuts and decreased regulation. The Dow has surged more than 46% since Trump’s election. Stocks have previously struggled when a president faces the possibility of impeachment.

The S&P 500 was down about 20% at one point from its high in 1998 as independent counsel Kenneth Starr ramped up his investigation of President Bill Clinton for perjury and obstruction of justice, according to CFRA. The market bottomed as the House began impeachment proceedings and later recovered all losses to reach a then-record high.

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Stocks Slip While Awaiting Fed Decision

Stocks opened slightly lower on Wednesday as a key decision from the Federal Reserve is expected this afternoon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell just a fraction of a percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both slipped about a third of one percent.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. This would be the bank’s second rate cut in a decade, after the central bank decided to lower the Fed Funds Rate to a range of 2.0%-2.25% in July. Chairman Jerome Powell will address the media on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Treasury yields fell ahead of the Fed’s announcement. The benchmark 10-year rate dipped to 1.77% from around 1.8%. The 2-year yield traded at 1.7%.

The Fed meeting takes place a couple of days after President Donald Trump called the central bank “boneheads” and asked for zero or even negative rates. The meeting also takes place as China and the U.S. try to reach a deal to end their ongoing trade war.

Trump said on Wednesday that a deal could come soon. China and the U.S. are expected to meet next month. The trade war has dampened the outlook for global economic growth and corporate profit expansion.

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Threat Of Mexican Tariffs Spook Stocks

FRIDAY – Stock index futures tanked on Friday morning, as investors feared President Donald Trump’s surprise threat of tariffs on all Mexico imports, amid a worsening trade war with China, could risk sending the U.S. economy into a recession.

Around 8:25 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicated a drop of 270 points at the open. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by more than 1% each. The S&P 500 was already down 5.3% this month through Thursday after trade talks fell apart with China and rhetoric on both sides worsened in May.

The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield dropped to lows not seen since 2017. The U.S. benchmark was yielding 2.17% Friday morning. It was above 2.5% at the beginning of the month. Mexico’s currency, the peso, tanked against the dollar by more than 2% to trade at 19.6 per dollar.

On Thursday evening, Trump announced the U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from June 10 until illegal immigration across the southern border was stopped.

The trade war appears to be dragging down the Chinese economy. The country’s manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in the month of May, China government data out overnight showed. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May was 49.4, down from April’s reading of 50.1. PMI readings below 50 signal contraction.

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