Tag Archives: stocks

Stocks Slip While Awaiting Fed Decision

Stocks opened slightly lower on Wednesday as a key decision from the Federal Reserve is expected this afternoon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell just a fraction of a percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both slipped about a third of one percent.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. This would be the bank’s second rate cut in a decade, after the central bank decided to lower the Fed Funds Rate to a range of 2.0%-2.25% in July. Chairman Jerome Powell will address the media on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Treasury yields fell ahead of the Fed’s announcement. The benchmark 10-year rate dipped to 1.77% from around 1.8%. The 2-year yield traded at 1.7%.

The Fed meeting takes place a couple of days after President Donald Trump called the central bank “boneheads” and asked for zero or even negative rates. The meeting also takes place as China and the U.S. try to reach a deal to end their ongoing trade war.

Trump said on Wednesday that a deal could come soon. China and the U.S. are expected to meet next month. The trade war has dampened the outlook for global economic growth and corporate profit expansion.

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Threat Of Mexican Tariffs Spook Stocks

FRIDAY – Stock index futures tanked on Friday morning, as investors feared President Donald Trump’s surprise threat of tariffs on all Mexico imports, amid a worsening trade war with China, could risk sending the U.S. economy into a recession.

Around 8:25 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicated a drop of 270 points at the open. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by more than 1% each. The S&P 500 was already down 5.3% this month through Thursday after trade talks fell apart with China and rhetoric on both sides worsened in May.

The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield dropped to lows not seen since 2017. The U.S. benchmark was yielding 2.17% Friday morning. It was above 2.5% at the beginning of the month. Mexico’s currency, the peso, tanked against the dollar by more than 2% to trade at 19.6 per dollar.

On Thursday evening, Trump announced the U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from June 10 until illegal immigration across the southern border was stopped.

The trade war appears to be dragging down the Chinese economy. The country’s manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in the month of May, China government data out overnight showed. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May was 49.4, down from April’s reading of 50.1. PMI readings below 50 signal contraction.

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Stocks turn lower, heads for 4-day slide after ECB cuts growth forecast

THURSDAY – Stocks fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank slashed its economic growth forecast for 2019 and announced a new round of stimulus to help banks in the region, stoking worries over the global economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 246 points lower as shares of 3M and United Technologies lagged. The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent, led by declines in the industrials and materials sectors. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8 percent. The indexes were headed for their fourth consecutive loss.

Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also broke below their 200-day moving averages, levels that are closely watched by traders.

ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank cut its growth estimate to 1.1 percent, down from a 1.7 percent expansion forecast released in December.

Thursday’s moves come after the major indexes posted their third straight day of losses, with investors eager to know details from trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

Stocks are still up sharply for the year despite Thursday’s losses. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both risen more than 10 percent while the Dow is up more than 9 percent.

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Stocks To Jump Friday

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a strong open on Friday, as Wall Street looked to build on its best start to a year in nearly 30 years.

At around 8:10 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicated a gain of more than 170 points at the open. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were also up.

The major indexes posted solid monthly gains in February, pushing the S&P 500 to its best start to a year since 1991. The S&P 500 is up more than 11 percent for 2019, along with the Dow. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, is up 13.5 percent.

Decreasing trade tensions between China and the U.S., along with a declining fears of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, helped propel stocks higher.

Market participants are likely to closely monitor a fresh batch of economic data on Friday. Personal income, consumer spending and core PCE figures for December and January will be released at around 8:30 a.m. ET.

Manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, and consumer sentiment data are all expected to follow later in the session.

 

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Stocks Rebound To Turn Positive Tuesday

Stocks started lower on Tuesday as investors digested the release of weaker-than-expected Home Depot earnings, mixed economic data and testimony from the top-ranked Federal Reserve official.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded just above even after falling more than 100 points earlier in the day. The S&P 500 climbed 0.1 percent while the Nasdaq Composite was also up slightly.

Strong consumer confidence numbers helped stocks rebound. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index jumped to 131.4 in February, easily topping an estimate of 124. In January, consumer confidence was at 121.7.

Investors also digested testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to a U.S. Senate committee on Tuesday. In prepared remarks, Powell said the economy is “healthy” but that the Fed is also seeing “crosscurrents and conflicting signals.” It comes after the U.S. central bank adopted a more cautious stance on future interest rate hikes last month.

Stocks have been on a tear recently, with the Dow and Nasdaq rising a nine-week winning streak. The S&P 500 has risen for eight of the past nine weeks. Diminishing concerns over U.S.-China trade and tighter monetary policy have contributed to the sharp stock gains.

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Bear Market Watch!

The stock market was hammered by trade tariff threats again this week, a frequent occurrence during this administration. Based on last week’s public comments, some Republican representatives are now becoming more worried. Without any concrete policy changes actually occurring, no one can be sure whether the threats are real, or just part of the negotiation strategy.

The Dow Industrials managed to close higher on Friday, avoiding the longest daily losing streak since 1978. Then, the Dow closed lower for eight days in a row, and a losing day on Friday would have been nine days in a row. Again, this kind of streak has not happened since February 1978.

Even though the first tariffs are scheduled to take effect July 6, there is uncertainty over which tariffs will actually be enforced. Therefore, it is difficult to determine what impact they will have on the economy and the stock market. As the rhetoric continues between the US, China, Canada, and the Eurozone markets, more economists are expressing their views on what these tariffs might mean.

Many of the world’s central bankers met last week in Portugal, and they also expressed their concerns. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi cited that past trade disputes had been overwhelmingly negative for the economy, and said that there was “no ground to be optimistic” about the current trade tensions. Some market’s segments are already reacting, as shares of Mercedes Benz and Fiat both dropped over 4% on concerns over what the tariffs could do to profits of the automakers.

Right now, the economy is still acting strong, consumers are optimistic, and technically the stock market is in a positive trend. Market action, however, is cyclical, so eventually these positive trends will turn negative. What signs should investors look for to warn them of a change in these trends? There are three trends that I feel investors can monitor for an early warning of an imminent recession and a bear market.

The first sign to look for is deterioration in the consumer sentiment, as the consumer plays an important role in the health of the economy. I never recommend basing decisions on individual data or even several data points, Rather, one should monitor the overall trend.

What to do? The market acted a bit tired last week and trade threats are likely to pick up again next week, which could trigger some more profit taking. The strong readings from the weekly studies indicate that this should be a buying opportunity for those without long positions in equities.

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Nasdaq Hits New Highs

WEDNESDAY – Stocks rose on Wednesday, boosted by dealmaking activity and potentially improving trade relations between the U.S. and the European Union.

The Nasdaq composite rose 1 percent and hit an all-time high, led by Facebook and Netflix, which also reached record levels. The S&P 500 gained 0.4 percent, with technology stocks outperforming.

The Dow Jones industrial average, meanwhile, rose 10 points as it tired to snap its longest losing streak since March 2017.

Disney raised its bid for Twenty-First Century Fox assets to $38 per share, or $71.3 billion, surpassing an offer made by rival and NBCUniversal parent Comcast. Last week, Comcast bid $65 billion in cash for Fox assets which include FX, Star TV and stakes in Sky.

The bid sent Fox shares higher by 7.3 percent.

Stocks fell on Tuesday as trade tensions between the U.S. and China intensified. The Dow led the way lower, sliding nearly 300 points and erasing its gains for 2018.

Small cap and penny stock index Russell 2000 also jumped higher Wednesday.

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3.9% Unemployment Can’t Keep Stocks Up

U.S. stocks fell Friday morning after the government’s monthly jobs report missed Wall Street expectations.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 100 points shortly after the opening bell, as large industrial components like Boeing and Caterpillar weighed down the other blue-chip stocks.

The S&P 500 fell about 0.4 percent in early trading as a decline in interest rates pulled financial and banking stocks down; shares of J.P. Morgan fell 0.8 percent while Bank of America lost about 1 percent.

The Labor Department reported that the economy added 164,000 jobs in the month of April, lower than the 195,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters. Average hourly earnings growth also missed, rising only 0.15 percent against expectations of a 0.2 percent gain.

Despite the miss in the number of jobs added, the government said the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent, an 18-year low.

Despite a broader slip in equities, Apple jumped after longtime investor Warren Buffett revealed that he bought 75 million shares during the first quarter, which added to the conglomerate’s already massive stake in the tech giant, “brought down our cash position moderately.”

The early moves in U.S. stocks came as markets across the globe showed a mixed picture. On Thursday, U.S. stocks finished relatively mixed, after the Dow Jones industrial average erased a nearly 400-point loss during the session, on the back of strong earnings.

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Stocks: The Week Ahead

After a hectic week that saw Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all report earnings, the week ahead will continue the abundance of headline earnings reports and blockbuster economic data.

The busy week of earnings will be punctuated by results from Apple (AAPL) after the market close on Tuesday.

And the economics calendar will bring us the monthly jobs report, which should show the U.S. economy continues to create jobs in the 10th year of the economic recovery. Economists expect the economy added 185,000 jobs in April, a rebound from March’s disappointing headline jobs gain while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4% after it held at 4.1% for a sixth-straight month in March.

The Federal Reserve will also announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday, though this announcement should come and go without fanfare as the central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate policy unchanged in a range of 1.5%-1.75%.

These reports follows last week’s first estimate on first quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the first three months of the year, better than had been expected by economists but a deceleration from the economic growth seen at the end of last year.

Economic calendar

Monday: Personal income, March (+0.4% expected; +0.4% previously); Personal spending, March (+0.4% expected; +0.2% previously); “Core” PCE, year-on-year, March (2% expected; 1.6% previously); Pending home sales, March (+0.5% expected; +3.1% previously); Dallas Fed manufacturing, April (25 expected; 21.4 previously)
Tuesday: Markit manufacturing PMI, April (56.5 previously); Construction spending, March (+0.5% expected; +0.1% previously); ISM manufacturing PMI, April (58.5 expected; 59.3 previously); Auto sales, April (17.15 million vehicles annualized expected; 17.4 million previously)
Wednesday: ADP private payrolls, April (+193,000 expected; +214,000 previously); Federal Reserve interest rate decision (1.5%-1.75% fed funds range previously, no change expected)
Thursday: Initial jobless claims (209,000 previously); Nonfarm productivity, first quarter (+0.9% expected; 0% previously); ISM non-manufacturing PMI, April (58 expected; 58.8 previously); Markit non-manufacturing PMI, April (54.4 previously)
Friday: Nonfarm payrolls, April (+185,000 expected; +103,000 previously); Unemployment rate, April (4% expected; 4.1% previously); Average hourly earnings, month-on-month, April (+0.2% expected; +0.3% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-on-year, April (+2.7% expected; 2.7% previously)

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Stocks Mixed On Huge Earnings Day

U.S. stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as one of the busiest days of the earnings season got under way.

The Dow Jones industrial average traded slightly lower, with Procter & Gamble contributing the most gains to the tune of 20 points, but Home Depot shaved off approximately 20 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent, with consumer discretionary leading decliners. The Nasdaq composite held around breakeven.

More than 90 companies were scheduled to post quarterly results on Tuesday. Dow components 3M, Caterpillar and DuPont reported earnings before the bell. Caterpillar and 3M posted mixed results, as both beat estimates on the bottom line, while missing on revenues. Caterpillar also lowered its 2016 earnings per share guidance.

Coming Up:

Tuesday

Earnings:

ATB: Apple, AT&T, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Capital One, Discover Financial, Express Scripts, Juniper Networks, Vertex Pharma, iRobot, Pandora Media, Panera Bread, Owens-Illinois

9 a.m.: Case-Shiller Home Price Index

9 a.m.: FHFA Home Price Index

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence

1 p.m.: $26 billion two-year Treasury note auction

Wednesday

8:30 a.m.: U.S. trade deficit

9:45 a.m.: Markit services PMI

10 a.m.: New home sales

1 p.m.: $34 billion five-year Treasury note auction

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