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Stock Start Week Flat – Twitter Rockets

MONDAY – U.S. stocks were mostly flat Monday, as traders monitor the bond market’s warning signals about the economy.

Twitter ($TWTR) shares surged more than 25% after SEC filings revealed Elon Musk purchased a more than 9% passive stake in the social media company. It comes less than a week after Musk polled his followers, questioning whether the social media giant follows free speech principles. Based on Twitter’s Friday closing price, the stake is worth $2.89 billion.

An often-cited recession signal was triggered Thursday evening when the the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019. The 5-year note yield is also trading above its 30-year counterpart.

Investors are also monitoring the latest developments in Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Sunday that Western nations will impost additional sanctions on Russia in the coming days.

Seasonally, April is generally one of the best months for stocks, edging higher in the last 20 years by 2.41% on average, MKM Partners’ JC O’Hara wrote in a note. Within the 16 of the last 17 Aprils, the S&P has also inched higher.

Friday’s positive session came despite March’s employment report, which fell short of economists’ estimates. The U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs during the month, while estimates from Dow Jones called for 490,000.

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Stocks Now Mixed, S&P Still Higher

HTML clipboard FRIDAY – The S&P 500 was steady Friday as the benchmark index looked to close out its second consecutive positive week.

Overall, stocks were mixed early.

For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up more than 1% and 2%, respectively. The Dow is marginally higher.

The S&P 500 is now up more than 3% in March, more than erasing its losses since Russia invaded Ukraine late last month.

The rebound has come even as the war in Ukraine continues and the Federal Reserve is set to hike interest rates several more times this year – some analysts saying as many as seven increases.

On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell vowed to be tough on inflation. The remarks came after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 last week, with hikes coming at each of the six remaining policy meetings this year.

Powell noted rate hikes could go from quarter-percentage-point moves to more aggressive half-point increases.

The central bank chief’s comments led Wall Street to raise rate hike expectations, with firms from Goldman Sachs to Bank of America penciling in half-point hikes in future Fed meetings this year.

Meanwhile, investors looked to promising signs the economy can run strong even as the Fed tightens monetary policy to address inflation.

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Stocks Rise Slightly After Wednesday’s Losses

HTML clipboard THURSDAY – Stocks rose early Thursday morning as investors tried to recover from declines in Wednesday’s regular trading session.

Investors are continuing to monitor the war in Ukraine and weigh the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes amid persistent inflation.

NATO leaders met in Brussels Thursday to discuss increasing pressure on Russia, as Ukraine appears to be retaking ground in the war.

Last week, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. Chair Jerome Powell on Monday vowed to be tough on inflation and opened the door for more aggressive half-percentage-point rate hikes.

The S&P 500 fell into correction territory late February, but is now 7.5% off its highs. The Dow is also 7% from its intraday record and the Nasdaq Composite is off by 14%.

Stocks have seesawed this week, alternating between up and down days. The Dow is about 1% lower on the week while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are little changed.

All three major averages are on track to close the month at least 1% higher.

On the data front, initial jobless claims last week totaled 187,000.

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Stocks Extend Losses

U.S. stocks eased Wednesday as oil prices rose, renewing inflation fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 410 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 declined 1%. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.9%.

Traders digested the latest news on the Ukraine-Russia war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for more pressure on Russia from other countries as the conflict appears to be entering a stalemate.

Oil prices ticked higher on the day, with international oil benchmark Brent crude advancing nearly 5% to top $120 per barrel. U.S. crude gained around 4% to more than $114 per barrel.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 2.41% at its session high Wednesday, the highest since May 2019. The benchmark rate has surged since the beginning of the week, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell vowed to be aggressive on inflation. The Fed last week raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.

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Stocks Rise Ahead of Earnings

U.S. stock futures rose in early morning trading on Wednesday as investors digested another batch of corporate earnings and tech shares looked to build on their rebound.

Through Tuesday’s close, the Nasdaq Composite has gained more than 6% from its recent low on Jan. 27 after falling into correction territory earlier this year.

Mortgage applications dropped 10% week over week, however, as the rise in interest rates in recent months appears to have dampened demand among homebuyers.

Yields have risen this year in part because of a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC on Wednesday that three rate hikes are possible this year but that the central bank is not locked in to any path and will watch how the economy responds.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added more than 370 points, helped by a 7.8% pop in Amgen on the back of its strong earnings report. The S&P 500 also registered a gain, climbing 0.8%. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite rose 1.3%.

As of the closing bell on Tuesday, nearly 60% of all S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter earnings and roughly 77% have topped Wall Street’s earnings estimates, according to FactSet.

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Stocks Try To End Big Week On A High Note

FRIDAY – U.S. stock futures pointed to a little changed open on Friday following a record-setting session for the major stock indexes.

Around 7 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were unchanged but pointed to a gain of 33 points at the open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures pointed to a flat open.

The small implied gain for the Dow comes after Disney shares jumped more than 5% on great earnings. Disney’s revenues for its media and networks segment topped estimates, while sales for the company’s parks, studio entertainment and direct-to-consumer businesses also beat expectations.

Stocks rose to record highs on Thursday after the world’s two largest economies reportedly agreed to remove existing trade tariffs, sparking a huge rotation into equities and out of bonds. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 15 basis points at one point on Thursday, its biggest upward move since the 2016 election.

The increasingly positive tone around global trade put the major indexes on track for solid weekly gains. Entering Friday’s session, the Dow is up 1.2% week to date. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both up 0.6% for the week through Thursday’s close. It would be the third straight week of gains for the Dow while the S&P 500 headed for its fifth straight weekly gain. The Nasdaq was on pace for a six-week winning streak.

On the data front, consumer sentiment figures are due out at 10 a.m. ET, as well as wholesale trade numbers.

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Stocks Slide, But On Track For Positive Week

FRIDAY – Stocks traded lower on Friday amid weak overseas data, but remained on track to post solid weekly gains after the release of better-than-expected earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 97 points lower, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 pulled back 0.3% while the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.5%.

More than 70 S&P 500 companies have reported calendar third-quarter earnings this week. Of those companies, 81% have posted better-than-expected results, FactSet data shows.

Weak data from China weighed down the market on Friday.

Still, concerns over the state of the global economy lingered. Overnight, China posted its weakest growth in nearly three decades, as the U.S.-China trade war hit demand at home and abroad. The world’s second-largest economy grew 6% in the third quarter, less than expected, and its weakest pace of expansion in over 27 years.

Sentiment around U.S.-China trade talks improved slightly this week, however. Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday there is “a lot of momentum” to get a deal done.

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Stocks To Rise After Draft Brexit Deal Announced

THURSDAY – U.S. stock index futures rose Thursday after a draft Brexit deal was struck between the European Union and the U.K.

Around 7:40 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 82 points, indicating a gain of about 70 points at the open. Prior to the Brexit reports, futures had been trading flat to lower. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were also higher.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “we have a great new Brexit deal” via Twitter. He called on British lawmakers to back the deal when it’s put before Parliament on Saturday. Meanwhile, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker tweeted that the deal was a “fair and balanced” one.

Nonetheless, markets rallied on the Brexit reports, as the deal removed some investor uncertainty amid heightened concerns about the health of the global economy. On Wednesday, unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales data fueled fears about a possible recession.

Global economic data points to slower growth, while the U.S. manufacturing sector is already contracting. Among the greatest of the worries plaguing markets is the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

The latest weekly jobless claims figures, housing starts and building permits for September, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index for October will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Industrial production data for September will follow slightly later in the session.

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Stocks Start 4th Qtr Higher

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as Wall Street kicked off the final quarter of 2019.

Wall Street ended higher on Monday on the back of renewed optimism in U.S.-China trade talks. A spokeswoman for the U.S. Treasury said the White House “is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time.” This relieved some earlier fears raised by reports last week that the U.S. has been looking at restricting U.S. investments in China.

Trade delegations from China and the U.S. are set to resume trade talks next week.

Furthermore, traders are looking to hear from the World Trade Organization. The institution is set to decide on an aircraft subsidies dispute that could allow the U.S. to impose tariffs on Europe.

On the data front, manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET; construction spending figures will be out at 10 a.m. ET, as well as the Dallas Federal Reserve service-sector numbers.

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S&P Posts Best Weekly Gain Since November

SUNDAY – Stocks posted strong weekly gains, led by tech shares, as investors cheered renewed optimism on the U.S.-China trade front on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 138.93 points to 25,848.87 as Boeing shares turned around to close 1.5 percent higher. Boeing’s turnaround was sparked by a report saying the company planned to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft. The stock had been under pressure all week after an Ethiopian Airlines flight using a 737 Max plane crashed on Sunday, which prompted several countries to ground flights involving the plane.

Gains in the tech and consumer discretionary sectors pushed the S&P 500 up 0.5 percent to 2,822.48. Tech shares also bolstered the Nasdaq Composite, which climbed 0.8 percent to 7,688.53.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both rose at least 2.9 percent, though the laggard Dow gained only 1.7 percent amid Boeing’s troubles. The S&P 500 also posted its biggest one-week gain since November.

Stocks have been on a tear this year, with the three major indexes rising more than 10 percent each in 2019.

This week’s gains were largely led by tech shares, as the sector surged 4.9 percent. The tech sector also became the best-performer of 2019. Nvidia was the best-performing stock in the sector, rising more than 12 percent while fellow semiconductor stocks like Broadcom and Lam Research also rose sharply this week.

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